Signal Velocity
Scaling depends on how frequently conversions occur, not just how many occur over time.
Signal Velocity measures how quickly conversion events are generated within a given time window. Most reporting focuses on totals, but delivery systems respond to timing and density.
Conversion activity clusters. Short bursts are followed by gaps. When signals cluster, the system receives consistent feedback. When gaps increase, that feedback weakens.
If timing is what matters, the next step is to quantify it in a way that can guide decisions.
View HVR FrameworkCore Metrics
These metrics translate signal timing into decision thresholds.
Signal Velocity
Example: 12 purchases in 4 hours → SV = 3.0
Indicates high signal density.
Scaling Coefficient
Example: SV 0.2 vs 0.8, CPA 45 vs 50 → Sc = 0.27
Low value means scaling will break.
HVR Score
Example: SV −25%, CPM +20% → HVR = −1.25
Shows early creative fatigue.
These values only matter in short windows. Daily averages hide these shifts.
Real-Time Decision Flow
These metrics are used during active delivery, not in reports.
1. Check last few hours of conversions
2. Identify clustering or gaps
3. Estimate signal density
4. Compare against baseline
5. Combine with CPA
High density with acceptable CPA supports scaling. Low density overrides CPA and requires holding spend.
System States
Signal behavior reduces into repeatable conditions.
Signals cluster tightly
Scaling is viable
Consistent but not dense
Scale gradually
Gaps increase
Hold or reduce spend
Execution
Budget increases should align with periods where signal intervals compress.
Performance decline begins with reduced signal density. CPA changes come later.
Decision Framework
> 1.5 Scale
1.0 to 1.5 Controlled scaling
Below 1.0 Hold or reduce
System Context
Signal Velocity is one component of the HVR framework and determines when scaling conditions are valid.
Explore Framework